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NSW Influenza Surveillance Report 28 to 4 July 2008 (Issued 11 July 2008)

Summary

Very little influenza activity has occurred in NSW for the week ending 4 July, 2008.

NSW influenza surveillance

The aim of influenza surveillance is to monitor general trends in influenza rather than the total number of people who are infected each year. The surveillance program has 4 main parts:

1.Influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations to 28 Emergency Departments1
In the week to 4 July, ILI presentations to emergency departments were low (rate 1.7 per 1000 presentations) (Figure 1). A few ED's alert systems have been triggered by increased respiratory attendances, but these have not been confirmed with laboratory testing.

2.Laboratory diagnoses of respiratory infections2
Virology
In the week to 4 July, a fewer number of samples tested positive to influenza (all influenza B) than the previous week. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity remains elevated which is usual for this time year (Figure 2 &Table 1).
Serology
An increase in samples testing positive for influenza occurred this week. Serology is a less reliable source of current influenza activity and tends to fluctuate from week to week (Table 1).

3. Deaths due to influenza or pneumonia3
In the week to 27 June, the number of deaths classified as pneumonia or influenza increased slightly (all classified as pneumonia), however this increase needs to be constant over a couple of weeks to be significant (see methods). The highest proportion of deaths occurring are in people aged 75 years and over (Figure 3).

4. Outbreaks4
No outbreaks were reported this week.

National influenza activity

Laboratory confirmed influenza notifications have shown a small rise over recent weeks.
Year to date, 58% of influenza laboratory notifications to National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Section have been Influenza Type A, 36% have been Influenza Type B and 6% were untyped (Figure 4). Twelve notifications have been typed as H3 and four have been typed as H1(Department of Health and Ageing).

International activity

There have been no reports of unusual influenza activity in Europe since April.(WHO).

Southern Hemisphere
New Zealand
Local influenza activity was reported by a small number of districts, with mostly influenza A viruses circulating. Influenza B viruses were also detected (WHO).

Figure 1

Figure 2

Table 1. Laboratory reports of respiratory virus infection by DIF, PCR and serology NSW, 24 May - 4 July 2008

Public Laboratory

Surveillance

Week ending

30 May

(No.pos)

Week ending

6 June

(No.pos)

Week ending

13 June

(No.pos)

Week ending

20 June

(No.pos)

Week ending

27 June

(No.pos)

Week ending

4 July

(No.pos)

Virology specimens tested

284 353 295 269 335 309

Influenza A

0 0 0 1 0

0

Influenza B

2 1 0 5 11

2

Adenovirus

4 3 6 0 6

7

Para flu 1

4 0 1 1 2

0

Para flu 2

1 0 1 0 1

3

Para flu 3

0 0 1 0 1

9

RSV

72 77 94 74 98

87

Rhinovirus

2 0 4 4 3 2
Point of care tests (denominator not available) 60 60
Influenza A 0 0 0 0 0 0
Influenza B 0 0 0 0 0 0
RSV 8 14 17 12 22

20

Serology specimens tested:

151 175 138 156 156

196

Influenza A

10 3 3 6 1

4

Influenza B

5 3 2 7 0

2

Adenovirus

0 0 0 0 0

0

Para flu 1

0 0 0 0 0

1

Para flu 2

1 0 0 0 0

0

Para flu 3

0 0 0 0 0

0

RSV

0 1 0 0 0

1

Rhinovirus

0 0 0 0 0

0

Figure 3

Methods

1. The 28 Emergency Departments included in this report are Albury, Belmont, Calvery Mater Newcastle, Cesnock, Children's Hospital at Westmead, Gosford, Griffith, Hornsby, John Hunter, Maitland, Manly, Manning Base, Mona Vale, Prince of Wales, Royal North Shore, Ryde, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven, Singleton, St George, St Vincent's, Sutherland, Sydney Hospital, Sydney Children's, Tamworth, Wagga Wagga, Wollongong and Wyong Hospitals.

Rates of ILI less than 2.0 /1000 presentations are considered "low", 2.0 to 3.9 /1000 presentations "moderate", 4.0 to 5.9 /1000 presentations "high" and greater than 6.0 /1000 presentations "very high".

2. Influenza laboratory diagnoses using virology are reported by South Eastern Area Laboratory Services (SEALS), Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research (ICPMR), South West Area Pathology Services (SWAPS), Pacific Laboratory Medicine Services (PaLMS), Hunter Area Pathology Services (HAPS) and Children's Hospital at Westmead (CHW). Laboratory diagnoses by serology are reported by ICPMR, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (RPAH) and SEALS.

Point of care testing is a test that allows rapid qualitative detection of influenza A and B as well as RSV. It is currently used at HAPS, ICPMR and PaLMS.

3. Data is sourced from the New South Wales Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages and includes deaths with "pneumonia" or "influenza" reported as a direct or contributing cause of death. Recent deaths referred to a Coroner are excluded. The interval between death and death data availability is usually at least 7 days and so in this data is one week behind reports from emergency departments and laboratories. In addition, previous weekly rates may also change due to longer delays in reporting deaths.

It should be noted that influenza infection may not be known at time of death certification and only very few certificates mention "influenza". Pneumonia has many other causes so monitoring the pneumonia death rate is a crude indicator of influenza deaths.

Influenza, when it is circulating, is known to cause excess mortality over and above expected seasonal death rates. The predicted seasonal baseline is obtained by fitting a 'robust regression' model is used to estimate the baseline. Robust regression limits the influence of outliers due to past epidemics in the modelling. This is important because the aim of this surveillance is to identify outliers (or excess mortality) due to influenza epidemics. This is based on Serfling's method (Serfling RE. Methods for current statistical analysis of excess pneumonia-influenza deaths. Public Health Reports 1963; 78(6): 494-506.) The epidemic control limit is 1.2 standard errors of prediction from the regression model . This limit has been found to provide a reasonable balance between false alarms (control limit exceeded when influenza not circulating) and true alarms (control limit exceeded when influenza circulating). If the observed mortality rate remains above the upper confidence limit for 2 or more weeks, then this could indicate that the excess mortality may be due to circulating influenza..

4. Outbreaks of influenza voluntarily reported to Public Health Units by residential care facilities.


Report prepared by Communicable Diseases Branch, NSW Health, in collaboration with: NSW Emergency Department Data Collection (HOIST), and NSW Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (Centre for Epidemiology and Research, NSW Department of Health), SEALS, ICPMR, SWAPS, PaLMS, HAPS, CHW, RPAH. Laboratories report weekly via a web base system designed by Andrew McNamara and Tim Churches, Centre for Epidemiology and Research, NSW Health. Enquires to Robin Gilmour, ph. 02 9424 5875, e-mail: robin.gilmour@doh.health.nsw.gov.au

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