15 July 2009

H1N1 Influenza 09 Update

NSW Chief Health Officer, Dr Kerry Chant, today said that a Sydney newspaper report claiming up to 10,000 people could die in NSW from H1N1 Influenza 09 over two months was inaccurate and alarmist.

Dr Chant said today's article was based on a worst case scenario - the 1918 pandemic - which was a far more virulent disease than the one we are seeing today and for which no antiviral treatments were available.

"In other words, the figure of 10,000 deaths in two months has been taken out of context and does not reflect what we are actually dealing with in NSW today," Dr Chant said.

"The NSW Health Interim Influenza Pandemic Action Plan (November 2005), relates to a hypothetical pandemic based on the 1918 influenza pandemic. It is not appropriate to use estimates from the 1918 pandemic to provide predictions for our current situation. This document was developed in 2005 for planning purposes. It covers a range of scenarios, from mild to very severe. Today's article referred only to the most severe hypothetical scenario.

"NSW modelling specific to the H1N1 Influenza 09 epidemic indicates that there could be a similar number of deaths as we see each year with seasonal flu, although the age profile will differ. It is important to remember that around 1000 people die in NSW each year from normal seasonal influenza.

"We have good information from Australia and around the world indicating that this influenza pandemic is nowhere near as severe as the 1918 pandemic.

"It is estimated that around 30 per cent of the NSW population could experience symptoms of H1N1 Influenza 09 over the next few months.

"Most people will only experience mild symptoms and will recover quickly from their illness. Only a small proportion of people will develop severe symptoms," Dr Chant said.

Since the epidemic began in NSW, 422 confirmed H1N1 Influenza 09 cases have been reportedly admitted to hospital. In NSW, 32 people with confirmed H1N1 Influenza are reported to be currently receiving intensive care.

Seasonal flu and H1N1 Influenza 09 can occasionally result in severe disease, even in people who have been previously well. Most people who have become severely unwell with H1N1 Influenza have had underlying medical conditions, including obesity.

Dr Chant reminded people to watch out for severe symptoms of influenza such as breathing difficulties, especially if they had an underlying chronic condition.

Pregnant women, people who are very overweight, and people with underlying health conditions like diabetes, lung, heart and kidney disease should consult their doctor if they develop an influenza-like illness.

Others who develop moderate to severe symptoms should see their GP, or where necessary, their local emergency department.

It is not necessary for people with symptoms of influenza to be tested for H1N1 Influenza 09. Treatment can be provided based on the person's symptoms.

Summary of hospital-admitted H1N1 Influenza 09 cases in NSW residents (June-July 2009)

Table last updated: 15 July 2009, 10.30am EST.

Dr Chant said 2195 people had now been tested positive for H1N1 Influenza 09, but this represented only a small proportion of the infections in the community as testing was no longer routinely recommended except for hospitalised patients.

A weekly report, Case Numbers and Statistics, which describes the progress of the H1N1 Influenza 09 epidemic in NSW, is available on the NSW Health website at: www.health.nsw.gov.au/publichealth/swine_flu.asp

More information is available from the NSW Health website and the Flu hotline on 180 2007.

For a range of health information, go online to www.health.nsw.gov.au