What's the purpose of modelling?

Workforce modelling maps the current and forecast labour pool for a specialty or profession against projected health service workforce scenarios. Models are used to highlight specialties and career opportunities looking over a decade into the future. This enables NSW Health to ensure our workforce has the capacity and capability to meet demand in the future.

What factors are considered in future workforce scenarios calculations?

When forecasting future workforce demand, we consider:

  • population growth, and population profile changes
  • disease and illness trends
  • number of services and treatments provided
  • changes in models of care provided
  • number of health professionals in specific areas
  • policy changes
  • changes in technology
  • changes in education pathways
  • other internal or external factors.

What data sources are used for modelling?

The Workforce Modelling team utilise several data sources, including, but not limited to:

  • NSW Health
  • National Health Workforce Data
  • Commonwealth Department of Education
  • Australian Institute Health & Welfare
  • NSW Cancer Institute
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics Population projections.

What methodology is used for workforce modelling?

NSW Health Workforce Modelling team approach models supply and demand separately. These separate forecasts are then combined to take a view of the workforce at time zero (now or when the modelling has been calibrated to begin) and for a predefined number of years into the future.

NSW Health Workforce Modelling team utilise a stock and flow for calculating supply, where the workforce is the stock, and workforce movements (entries and exits) are the flow.

Workforce modelling use both qualitative and quantitative data to create multiple future workforce scenarios, where projected demand is funded activity within the system. Modelling relies heavily on actual service levels, historical trends, and relationships with other parts of the sector. Unmet need that is not funded by the system or dealt with by current models of care is not considered.

Are the workforce modelling fact sheets for the state of NSW, or NSW Health?

Workforce modelling fact sheets may cover either:

  • NSW (Total State, including NSW Health and other providers within NSW)
  • NSW Health (Public) and/or
  • NSW Health local health districts/networks.

What is the difference between public health and public other as shown in some fact sheets?

Public health refers to NSW Health that covers more than 220 public hospitals, as well as providing community health and other public health services, for the NSW community through a network of local health districts, specialty networks and non-government affiliated health organisations, known collectively as NSW Health.

Public other refers to all government services outside of NSW Health.

Public sector includes both public health and public other.

Current as at: Thursday 9 November 2023
Contact page owner: Workforce Planning and Talent Development