Mathematical models of COVID-19 provided important information to NSW Health about the spread of the disease in the population and the impact of intervention measures. During the pandemic, internal COVID-19 modelling conducted by the System Information and Analytics (SIA) Branch was supplemented by modelling from several external modelling teams.
The NSW Health COVID-19 Modelling Science Table (MST) was formed in July 2021 as a joint initiative between the NSW Health Critical Intelligence Unit and the Centre for Epidemiology and Evidence to support interpretation of statistical models that provide projections of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths.
Outputs from five modelling teams were considered by the MST in 2021, including the University of NSW/University of Melbourne, Burnet Institute, NSW Ministry of Health (SIA), Finity and the Sax Institute. MST meetings occur weekly or as necessary and advice has been provided to NSW Health policy teams, Executive and NSW Government. Membership of the MST includes senior officers from the Population and Public Health Division, Patient Experience and System Performance Division, and Agency for Clinical Innovation, along with key external academics.
The MST has proven to be a useful mechanism for collaboration and coordination across NSW Health divisions and agencies on COVID-19 modelling matters.
Andrew Milat1, Robyn Newson1
