The System Integration Monitoring and Evaluation team is part of the System Information and Analytics branch, who have been generating vital COVID-19 insights.
The team usually supports units and branches across the Ministry of Health to make evidence-based decisions regarding planning, innovation and policy. Estimating how many people are likely to require hospital beds or intensive care across NSW because of COVID-19, is only one of many important roles this team performs.
Since mid-March 2020, when COVID-19 became recognised as a global pandemic, this dynamic team stepped up to undertake scenario modelling designed to inform and support decision making around health system preparedness.
Utilising information gleaned from the emerging situation overseas and building on the expertise developed by the team to develop algorithms to identify patients at risk of hospitalisation, the team were able to quickly design a tool tailored to the COVID-19 situation. This tool models a range of possible scenarios and the demand COVID-19 might place on our hospitals and health services.
Predictions for COVID-19 related Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and hospital admissions, are made one to14 days in advance and the effective reproduction numbers are predicted four weeks in advance.
Although the System Integration Monitoring and Evaluation team has a lot more work to do when it comes to predicting the impact of COVID-19 on NSW residents, their tireless and all-consuming work has helped the state to be well prepared for this and any future pandemics.
Picture from right to left: Tony Ip, Yalchin Oytam, Thao Phan, Amith Shetty, Pejman Adily, Samantha Taouk.
Apologies from: Sharon Smith, James Linden, Grant Sara, Domnech Finney, Johanna Wing, Adam Myatt.
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